Why is Israel attacking Lebanon?
Israel telah mencoba untuk membenarkan serangan skala besarnya terhadap kota-kota di Lebanon yang menyebabkan ribuan orang mengungsi.
Hundreds of Lebanese people are dead, many are wounded and thousands are displaced as they scramble to try to figure out safe areas to get their families to.
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What happened and when?
Israel has just killed at least 558 Lebanese people.
Di antara korban tewas terdapat 50 anak-anak dan 94 wanita, sementara sekitar 2.000 orang terluka, kata Kementerian Kesehatan Masyarakat Lebanon.
More than 10,000 people have been forced from their homes in the most ferocious onslaught Lebanon has experienced since its civil war of 1975-1990.
Lebih dari 1.300 serangan terhadap apa yang diklaim Israel sebagai sasaran militer Hizbullah terjadi setelahnya. Serangan sedang berlangsung.
Where in Lebanon is Israel attacking?
Satellite mapping of the strikes by Al Jazeera shows attacks across Lebanon, with the highest concentration in the south and the Bekaa Valley, where Hezbollah’s influence is considered strongest.
Before the attacks, some 80,000 phone calls from the Israeli army to Lebanese people – predominantly in the south – were reported, urging them to evacuate their homes and find “safety”.
The result was panic, chaos and bottlenecks, with the main coastal road to the capital, Beirut, gridlocked for several kilometres as residents tried to flee an impending attack.
Why is Israel attacking Lebanon?
Israel says it is attacking Hezbollah so it can return its displaced citizens to the north.
On Wednesday, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant announced the redeployment of “forces, resources and energy” towards the north and Hezbollah as the war entered a “new phase”, seeming to imply the war on Gaza was winding down.
According to Gallant, this was part of a bid to return the 65,000 Israelis he had ordered evacuated in the early days of the conflict in anticipation of Hezbollah attacks on their homes near Lebanon’s border.
That big Hezbollah attack never happened but Israel and Hezbollah have been maintaining a steady exchange of fire over Lebanon’s southern border since October 2023.
Hezbollah has promised to keep up its attacks until Israel reaches a ceasefire agreement with the group’s ally Hamas in Gaza.
Is this related to last week’s pager attacks?
It appears so.
Pada tanggal 17 September, sehari sebelum pengumuman “fase baru” Gallant, ratusan pager milik anggota Hizbullah diledakkan dalam serangan yang diyakini secara luas dilakukan oleh Israel.
Israel did not comment.
The following day, another attack hit Hezbollah’s walkie-talkie radios. The two attacks killed 37 people, including two children, and wounded and maimed thousands more.
Serangan-serangan tersebut mengganggu komunikasi kelompok tersebut dan, menurut para analis, melemahkan moral kelompok tersebut.
How dangerous is this?
Very.
Aliansi Israel dan Hizbullah dapat menarik negara-negara lain untuk ikut serta.
Sekutu Israel, Amerika Serikat, mengumumkan akan mengerahkan pasukan tambahan ke wilayah tersebut, tanpa merinci berapa banyak dan untuk tujuan apa. AS saat ini memiliki sekitar 40.000 tentara di wilayah tersebut.
Hezbollah and Iran have worked in tandem since Hezbollah’s founding as a response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982.
Israel has pitched its battles with groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah as part of a wider battle against Iran.
Israel, while it has never admitted to having nuclear weapons, is estimated to have an arsenal of 90 nuclear warheads.
Iran, while not yet nuclear-armed, is considered to be close to it after an agreement to limit the country’s nuclear programme was dissolved by former US President Donald Trump in 2018.
Regardless, Iran has one of the region’s largest and most powerful militaries as well as a network of alliances with groups including Yemen’s Houthis and Gaza’s Hamas.
What would it take for other states to become involved?
Both the US and Iran have repeatedly shown themselves to be aware of the risks any escalation might pose.
Terlepas dari provokasi Israel – seperti serangan udara terhadap konsulat Iran di Damaskus, Suriah pada bulan April 2024, dan pembunuhan pemimpin politik Hamas Ismail Haniyeh di Teheran pada bulan Juli – tanggapan Iran terhadap Israel sejauh ini masih hangat.
Pembalasan terhadap serangan udara bulan April telah dikirim melalui telegram jauh sebelumnya dan sebagian besar dapat dicegat. Belum ada tanggapan terhadap pembunuhan Haniyeh.
The US, despite its unflagging support for Israel, has also shown itself to be aware of the risks of escalation.
What does Israel want?
For many in Israel, after decades of tension, war with Hezbollah is inevitable.
As the war on Gaza rumbles on and the death toll there soars past 41,455, many have accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of prolonging and escalating the conflict for his political ends.
Groups representing the families of those taken captive by Hamas on October 7 have accused the PM of derailing ceasefire talks – concerns echoed even by Biden, in June.
“Saat ini, ada permainan ayam termahal di dunia yang terjadi di kawasan ini,” kata analis politik Ori Goldberg dari Tel Aviv, berbicara sebelum serangan terbaru tersebut.
“It’s always framed as a kind of inevitability, one that the Israeli leadership can’t be held responsible for. They’re creating their own self-fulfilling prophecy.”
